Nepal Politics Top Stories

Can Nepal Balance its tilted Foreign Policy? : Birendra P Mishra. (P-1)

During his two terms of Prime Ministership KP Sharma Oli visited China twice. His first visit commenced in March 2016 during his first tenure as prime minister. During the visit he succeeded in deepening ties with the top leadership, exploring new areas of cooperation and signing new agreements based on 10 points of agreements reached during his first visit. During his second stint his second visit was for six days (18 to 23 June 2018. During his second stint his second visit was for six days (18 to 23 June 2018.  The visit aimed at getting favours from China on several fields in quick succession. To obtain the objectives the following events took place in succession:

 

Birendra P Mishra, Kathmandu, 8 Oct. 2021. Sher Bahadur Deuba, who is leading the coalition government, has taken oath as prime minster in July, 2021. After assuming the office, he declared to have good relationship with both China and India. This echoed a change in the foreign policy adopted by the out going prime minister KP Sharma Oli. He has tilted his foreign policy in favour of China and postured himself as anti-India to establish himself as the top most nationalist leader. However, it is believed that his anti-India remarks were mild after he met RAW chief of India a few months back.

With regard to Nepal’s foreign policy, it is often asked: Has Nepal maintained good relations with its neighbours?  It is customary for a new prime minister to say that his government will maintain good relationship with neighbours.   Can the tilted policy be balanced? It is in this context, an effort has been made to examine it objectively.

Significantly, within weeks of assuming the office, the Deuba government decided to study the ground reality of its international border with China in Humla, as per issue raised last year. The ministry of Home Affairs formed on 21 August a six-member panel  led by Jaya Narayan Acharya , joint secretary, Ministry of Home Affairs to study the boundary issue along the  Nepal- China border from Limi Lapsa to Hilsa of Humla. The panel has submitted its report to the Home Minister on 27 September 2021. Nepal shares 1389 km borders with China. Though the line of demarcation was settled in 1970s, there are disputes in some areas in some districts. But hardly any party in power dares to raise the issue to annoy the Chinese establishment. The KP Sharma Oli government, which was tilted to China, crossed the limit when in October 2020 its foreign minister denied the allegation of intrusion by China in Humla leveled by a member of Provincial Assembly even before receiving the report of the fact-finding team formed by the government.

            The former PM KP Sharma Oli, who has been forced to relinquish his office in July2021, reached the pinnacle of his political career with ups and downs in his political career. He was jailed for a long time on account of his involvement in the Jhapa naxal movement. He did not participate in the people’s movement 2 during 2006. However, with his shrewdness he not only became the chief of the CPN-UML but also became prime minister twice and brought Nepal very close to China. However, there are subjective and objective conditions, which are responsible for it.

The first CA failed to adopt a constitution, The second CA before adopting the constitution, circulated a draft, which was opposed by the Madhesi outfits. About more than four dozen agitators were killed . However, all major political parties decided to adopt the draft and the new constitution was adopted in 2015, which India wanted to be inclusive. The Madhesi parties continued their agitation and again dozens agitators were killed. Ultimately, the Madhesi parties started their protest of ‘sit in’ on the Nepal-India border that culminated in another border blockade, which  provided opportunity to fuel anti-India sentiments and resentments in Nepal. KP Sharma Oli became prime minister after defeating the sitting PM Sushil Koirala. The contest was uncalled for as it was agreed upon that after the constitution was adopted, Oli would lead the government to hold all elections. However, he had to resign before facing the no-confidencea motion in the House, as his partner PK Dahal Prachanda withdrew his support. Oli believed that there was an external force (India) behind his removal. 

A new government was formed and Dahal was made prime minister with an agreement to share power with SB Deuba for six months each. Hence, Prachanda could hold only the first phase of the local elections and made room for Deuba to complete the rest local elections and parliamentary election. In the parliamentary election, he held India responsible for getting ousted as PM and made his anti-India stance a plank in the parliamentary election to get more votes. However, the strategy changed again, perhaps under another external force, to form another alignment of all communist forces to come together and fight elction jointly by sharing the sets to contest. In the beginning, Dr. Baburam Bhattarai joined the alliance but he left it quickly. Oli’s party became the single largest party and with Dahal’s support he formed the government. However, as history repeats itself, Dahal again went against him and with support from about two dozen MPs from Oli’s party reduced Oli to minority and a new government under Deuba has been formed.

            During his two terms of Prime Ministership KP Sharma Oli visited China twice. His first visit commenced in March 2016 during his first tenure as prime minister. During the visit he succeeded in deepening ties with the top leadership, exploring new areas of cooperation and signing new agreements based on 10 points of agreements reached during his first visit. During his second stint his second visit was for six days (18 to 23 June 2018. During his second stint his second visit was for six days (18 to 23 June 2018.  The visit aimed at getting favours from China on several fields in quick succession. To obtain the objectives the following events took place in succession:

a. Rehiring of Chinese Firm by the PM

The Budhi Gandaki 1200MW project, which was to be constructed by an Indian company initially, was cancelled due to delay in construction work. The Baburam Bhattarai government formed the Budhi Gandaki HydroelectricProject Development Committee to execute the project. However, in 2017, the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led government signed the MoU with China Gezouba Group Corporation (CGGC) to be constructed under the engineering, procurement, construction and financing EPCF) model.(1) The Sher Bahadur Deuba-led government cancelled the contract and decided to build it with domestic resources. In September, 2018, the Oli government decided to rope in CGGC again to get it executed the reservoir project under EPCF model without initiating a competitive bidding process, as was done previously by the Dahal-led government without undergoing any due formalities.

b. Military Cooperation:

A memorandum of Understanding was signed by Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Ishwar Pokhrel and Chinese State Councilor and Defence Minister Wei Fenghe to provide assistance worth (RMB) 150 million (Rs 2.53 billion) to the Nepal Army for a period of five years in October 2018 in Beijing. Interestingly, the bilateral military cooperation, which started in 1988, had been expanding continuously. Nepal was considered to be one of the significant destinations for China’s PLA to conduct forest warfare and high altitude warfare training. (2)

c. Chinese language: 

Nepal was getting prepared to include the Chinese language in school curriculum for many years.  His government took the initiative to include it in the school education. (3) It was introduced silently in private schools from the primary level taxing the growing minds of the country.(4) Mandarin was made mandatory in many schools. It was justified that these schools did not have to bear any cost for introducing it, as the Chinese volunteers deputed by the Chinese government were teaching it. Moreover, principals and owners of such schools were lured by personal favour, like pleasure cum educational trips to China. (5)

d. Chinese Firm to Equip PM’s Office:

The Prime Minister Office signed a contract with a subsidiary company of the Chinese Huawei Technologies Co.Ltd after suspending bidding process to set up the ‘action room’ equipped with video conferencing and conference call, etc., to enable the Prime Minister and other senior officers to directly monitor large projects. It costed around Rs54.2 million. (6)

e. Nepal for Chinese Gauge for Railway:

Nepal has decided to adopt a railway-track gauge used by China, i.e.  Standard-gauge or 1.435mm gauge for its network in placeof the broad-gauge or 1.676mm gauge being used by India in its main railway lines. India is to lay a broad-gauge rail link for 130-km, from its border town of Raxaul to Kathmandu. The decision of the government is based on the argument that since the Chinese railways link may be extended to Pokhara and to Lumbini as well, the standard gauge would be economical. (7)

f. China to Aid 15 Northern Districts of Nepal:

Nepal has permitted the China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) formed in 2018 to provide development assistance and create capitals in 15 northern districts of Nepal having common border with China to meet their developmental requirements. There will be direct contact between the local bodies and CIDCA through Nepal’s consular general’s office in Lhasa. (8)

g. President Bidya Devi Bhandari’s visit to China:

President Bidya Devi Bhandari’s state visit to China in April 2019 was significant for three reasons. The main purpose of the visit seemed to extend formal invitation to Chinese President Jinping for visiting Nepal, which the present dispensation awaited seriously for long, though she participated in the second conference of the BRI, which had ended on 27 April 2019 and signed the protocol on implementing agreement on Transit and Transport and six other agreements, which was pending since Nepal and China signed the Transit and Transport agreement in March 2016 during PM Oli’s first tenure as Prime Minister. (9)

h. Scholarship Schemes:

In recent years, China has been extending scholarships not only to the Nepalese students but also to the government staff to enhance their abilities. Against its offer of just 20 scholarships- six seats for undergraduates and 14 for postgraduates under the Chinese Government Scholarship Programme in 2014, in June 2019 it offered more than 850 training programmes to civil servants with an indication of increasing the number in the future. India and other countries have been left far behind. Interestingly, journalists from print and electronic media have visited China in great number. (10)

i. Nepal Banned a Tibetan Official:

Tribhuvan International Airport, Katmandu suspected Penpa Tsering, an American citizen of being an agent of the exiled Tibetan government and refused his entry into Nepal on 22, June 2019. He was deported to the US the same night without the verification  of his identity on advice from China. However, the concerned person with the same name was residing in Dharmashala in India.( 11) The embassy of China had instructed the immigration office of the Airport not to allow those persons to enter Nepal who were in its blacklist. 

j. Visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister:

Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi was on an official visit to Nepal from September8 to 10, 2019. His first engagement was his official delegation level meeting with his Nepalese counterpart Pradeep Kumar Gyawali for exchanging three letters of exchange, which were signed during President Bidya Devi Bhandari’s visit to China in April 2019. Though the visit claimed to have discussions about the project to be taken up by China under the BRI, and on bilateral economic cooperation and the execution of the pacts and agreements signed in the past, it was primarily to asses the overall preparation and selection of important agreements to be signed during the forthcoming visit of president Xi Jinping in October 2019. The exact date was not announced earlier in view of his security, as the President was to visit India and Nepal both during his neighbourhood tour. FM Wang Yi not only called on President Bhandari, PM Oli and former prime minister PK Dahal, but also the leader of opposition to gauge the consensus on President Xi’ visit and its effectiveness. (12).

k. Chinese President’s Two-day Visit to Nepal:

President Xi Jinping’s two-day state visit (October 12-13,2019) to Nepal was desperately awaited, as it was the first visit by a Chinese president in 23 years, since Jian Zemin visited Nepal in 1996. He flew to Kathmandu from Mamallapuram near Chennai in India after completing his two-day (October 11-12) visit there.

His visit provided a clear twist in the Nepalese foreign policy. Besides signing   of twenty agreements and MoUs, the14-point joint communiqué was issued after the conclusion of his visit. Its main feature was the recognition of  BRI as an important opportunity to deepen mutually-beneficially cooperation in all fields in a comprehensive manner. It covered the agreement to enhance connectivity that included vital components such as ports, roads, railway, aviation and communications within the overarching framework of the Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network. It not only reiterated to have their relations based on the five principles of Peaceful Coexistence, Charter of the United Nations, and principles of good neighbourliness, but also significantly added to elevate Nepal-China Comprehensive Partnership of Cooperation Featuring Ever-lasting Friendship to Strategic Partnership of Cooperation to show that the relation did not remain traditional any more, as it acquired significant dimension by his visit.

Unexpectedly, the much sought after Extradition Treaty by China was not signed that marred the visit, as it was agreed during the last visit of PM Oli to negotiate the Treaty along with the treaty on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters in order to strengthen cooperation on the administration of border areas and combat illegal border crossings and transnational crimes. It was also agreed on that China would train Nepali law enforcement officials, organize exchange visits for security personnel and hold joint training exercises between the two armies. Over the next three years, China would offer 100 training opportunities to Nepali law enforcement officers each year.              

Dr.Birendra P Mishra, former election commissioner of Nepal

 

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