Dr.Vijay Datta, Kathmandu, 18 Sept.Since the triangular conflict erupted between Iran, the United States, and Israel, the geopolitical landscape has been shifting day by day. This compounding crisis has severely destabilized the Middle East while sending shockwaves through energy, economic, and security sectors worldwide.
The geopolitical fabric of the Middle East is undergoing a structural transformation. Traditional Western security guarantees are eroding, regional alliances are becoming increasingly fluid, and low-cost asymmetric warfare is reshaping power dynamic across the region. At the center of this shift lies the *Mecca Joint Defence Agreement*, ongoing missile and drone threats from Yemen’s Houthi movement, and the strategic restraint exercised by key regional powers like Pakistan, Turkey, and the United States.
*The Limits of Collective Security:* The Mecca Agreement
The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement—built on the Saudi-Pakistan Bilateral Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement—was established as a NATO-style mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. Conceptualized as an “*Islamic Deterrent Bloc,*” each member offers a distinct pillar:
*Saudi Arabia:* Financing, capital investment, and energy guarantees.
Turkey: Drone systems, defense industrial tech, and logistical support.
Pakistan: Manpower, nuclear-backed strategic profile, and military training.
Despite the pledge that an attack on one is an attack on all, neither Islamabad nor Ankara has deployed troops to counter Houthi strikes inside Saudi Arabia. Both nations face critical domestic and strategic constraints:
*Pakistan’s Strategic Balancing*: Pakistan shares a vulnerable 900-kilometer border with Iran. Intervening against an Iran-backed movement risks igniting border flashpoints and domestic sectarian unrest. Following a precedent set by its parliament, Pakistan limits its role in Saudi Arabia strictly to defensive training and protecting holy sites, avoiding offensive combat operations.
*Turkey’s Realpolitik*:
Ankara prioritizes maintaining pragmatic trade and diplomatic relations with Tehran. Directly engaging Houthi forces would alienate Iran and drag Turkey into a peripheral conflict outside its core strategic interests in the Levant and Mediterranean.
*Asymmetric Power:* The Houthi Advantage in Yemen
Operating out of Yemen’s rugged mountain terrain and densely populated urban strongholds, the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah) utilizes high-yield asymmetric warfare. Backed by Iranian technology transfers—including Quds cruise missiles and low-cost suicide drones—the Houthis consistently target Saudi energy facilities and border territories.
*The primary challenge for Saudi defense is cost asymmetry.*
Intercepting a $3,000 drone with a $3 million Patriot missile creates a long-term economic and inventory drain that conventional military power struggles to resolve.
*The Evolution of US Foreign Policy & Regional Realignment*
The historical “security for oil” pact established between Washington and Riyadh in 1945 has evolved significantly. As the United States transformed into a net energy exporter, its reliance on Middle Eastern crude waned, shifting American strategic focus toward the Indo-Pacific.
Wary of prolonged Middle Eastern engagements, Washington has avoided direct, large-scale campaigns against the Houthis. This reality has forced Saudi Arabia to diversify its strategy—pursuing air defense cooperation through potential normalization discussions under the Abraham Accords framework while simultaneously engaging in direct diplomatic channels with Tehran and regional neighbors.
*Iran’s Ideological & Strategic Role*
While the most sacred physical shrines of Twelver Shia Islam are located in Iraq (Najaf and Karbala), Iran acts as the geopolitical and ideological anchor of the Shia world. Centered in the clerical hub of Qom and the holy city of Mashhad, Iran exercises immense ideological soft power. Through its “Axis of Resistance” network, Tehran projects influence across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, allowing it to maintain strategic leverage without direct interstate military confrontation.
Ultimately, sovereign self-interest, border security, and diplomatic hedging dictate regional actions far more than paper treaties, defining a Middle East governed by calculated pragmatism. In this conflict Sunny countries are Pakistan and Turkey and Iran is Shia so,differences are clearly seen. Each one cheat one policy is obviously visiable.
