Vivekanand jha, ranchi.5th of November 2024, by all parameters, is going to prove to be a red letter day, because America is on the verge of creating a history: it perhaps will witness, albeit for the first time, a woman president, if all pre- polling surveys are any indication. Unlike other elections, this ongoing election is going to be a neck to beck competition between the two contestants where, despite Trump’s emotional siding with youth, Hindus, his sloganeering ‘ Make America great again’, he does not appear to be sailing ahead with the aura of invincibility, for Kamla Harris, in crystallisation of the adage, ‘ Slow but steady wins the race’, has been slogging along, initially faltering a bit, when Donald purportedly appeared to be going great guns, yet remarkably regained her position and, if indications and poll surveys are taken at the face value, Donald Trump, unfortunately again, will be trumped by Harris. Little wonder then Alen Musk, the owner of Telsa group, a die hard fan of Donald Trump, in his desperate bid to swing the election in favour of his icon, had dangled the carrots: ‘ Vote for Donald and win eight crores of award’. Unfortunately for Donald Trump, if he ends up as a loser, which perhaps he will, he can only blame his own ill- luck for this fiasco. In fact, it would be hardly an exaggeration to say, if Trump loses, that how Iran, desperate to bomb Israel, has been patiently awaiting the American Presidential result before it could unleash its fangs upon Israel, lest the return of Donald Trump will bring in its wake the massive sanction from USA for Iran. Whereas Israel might be indifferent to election results, nonetheless for Benjamin Netanyahu, dealing with Kamla Harris in the Oval office, would be far more preferable vis- a- vis wrestling with the wrestler, Donald Trump, for Trump, despite his nationalistic fervour, is a tough nut to crack; he is unpredictable, very difficult to dissect, and far more a nightmare for the lesser leaders of inconsequential nations on the periphery of White House’ estimate, to even deal with him, far less curry favour with him. Besides, Donald is resented by the powerful countries like China, when the latter view Donald as an antidote to China’s bloated ambitions to trump USA in its emergence as the superpower.
Nonetheless Donald Trump’s victory was very much in strategic interest of India, for the latter is well know baiter of Islamic jihadists. Unequivocally, he had made his intention as well as his vision clear when he had said, ‘ The brutal assault of Hindus, Christians and Buddhists in Bangladesh, he would seldom have permitted under his presidency, and will go gung ho in pursuit of eliminating Islamic terrorism in across the world’. Apparently, Donald Trump has the clarity of his views too, on Kashmir: it is a bilateral issue to be dealt between India and Pakistan. Kamla Harris, on the other hand, arbitrarily though, in exhibition of irony of ironies, holds a contrarian view: Kashmir is a disputed issue. Having an Indian origin, especially from Hindu background, Kamala’s disorientation from her moorings, becomes self- explicit when she holds such a degrading and disgraceful views against the strategic interest of India, the Punyabhoomi where from she traces her roots too. But then, even with all this unconscionable baggage of perceived incongruities, Kamala is still the preferred choice, for Donald’s staunch supporters vandalising the Capitol Hill, in the wake of his defeat in 2020, when the world benumbed by the brazen hooliganism of Donald’s rowdy followers, watched the so-called evangelism of USA in promoting democracy across the world, ironically though, was nipping in the bud the last vestiges of democracy. Little wonder then if Donald stands trumped by Kamala Harris, the unsavoury episode enacted by Donald’s followers and scripted by the then president, would still be fresh in the memories of Americans who, notwithstanding Trump’s jingoistic observation, ‘ We will make America great again’, Americans do not appear to be much enthused by such hyperboles, for the vandalisation of Capitol Hill by his followers, the sanctified place for making legislations for the nation, despicably fell casualty to desecration by the same man, beggars belief of his own faith in what he says and what he does. Alas! Trump would have successfully bridged between all that he says and he does!
Howdy- Modi event in 2019 in Houston in USA, presented the biggest strategic conundrum to this author: Narendra Modi going ecstatic in that historic event, in one of his finest speeches in English ever delivered, had given a clarion call from the stadium, ‘ Abki bar Trump Sarkar’, pleasantly astonished me, with a question haranguing me deeply, ‘ Did Modi make that observation on impulse?’ Why did he go overboard to impress Donald Trump, his friend, by entering into the tiger’s den? Interestingly, when none ever dared to interfere in America’s presidential election, why would Modi risk in appeasing his friend, thereby jeopardising India’s strategic interest? I pondered. Apparently, Narendra Modi’s observation, unwarranted as it was, deeply disconcerted me, for I taught the paper International Relations in the IAS Mains–I have never been a student of International Relations, yet by virtue of reading columns and articles for decades, I have developed a deep interest in foreign policies and International relations. Little wonder then I remained deeply in quest for unraveling this latest conundrum in Modi’s crossing the Lakshman Rekha, for I sincerely thought, would Biden, in the wake of his victory, play the spoilsport in terms of India’s strategic interests in Asia and across the world. Moreover, I reflected seriously on this issue of grave foreign policy infringement on the part of prime minister, I was seriously troubled. Unequivocally then, I began my deep quest for unraveling the underlying rationale behind Narendra Modi going gung ho with his unwarranted observation.
As I began my sincere perseverance to unravel this apparent foreign policy puzzle, I found myself at the crossroad, for I was leaving no stone unturned to de- mystify the mystery behind Modi’s blatant digression from the established monolith of foreign policy template. No wonder I visited plethora of pieces, sought the opinions of few experts, yet, invariably hit the cul-de-sac: The greater was my effort to break the jinx, bigger was the complexity of the issue boggling my mind. Finally, it was Raja Mohan’s piece in Indian Express, which gave me a newer insight into the entirety of the conundrum: India’s growing strategic interest with USA, especially the former emerging as a strategic partner of USA, in South Asia, and greater part of Asia and world affairs. Significantly, Vajpayee’s letter to President Clinton, in the wake of nuclear test in Pokhran, where Ataljee, given his foresightedness to strategically link India with China, was a masterstroke: first time in the history of Bharatvarsha, India was seeking a parity with China, which the latter viscerally resented, for China, since the days of Den Xiapooing, was persevering to seek parity with USA, while disdainfully dismissing India as a far lesser mortal. Hence, with the benefits of hindsight, Modi sought to build upon that strategic equation which Ataljee had sought to institutionalise, and Jaswant Singh – Talbott strategic dialogue sought to signify. But then, my scepticism was very grave and critical: Was Modi, by his over enthusiasm, seeking to put to shreds, the pioneering initiative of PV Narsimha Rao seeking to cultivate caucus in Capitol Hill, especially when Pakistan had the robust presence? I questioned myself. Apparently, especially with the benefits of hindsight, when Narendra Modi, far from endorsing Trump for his return, had even refused to entertain Trump’s request for a meeting while he was in USA, tantamounts to his acknowledgement of mistake committed in Howdy- Modi event; he, in fact, does not want to be associated with any particular candidate this time, as he did not intend to duplicate his past mistake which he had committed in Howdy- Modi event in 2019 in Houston, followed by Namaste Trump even in Ahmedabad. Moreover, Narendra Modi must have had the feelers of Kamala Harris winning the election and therefore he never intended to jeopardize India’s equation with Kamala Harris, especially when Harris is known to be harbouring an antagonistic mindset on Kashmir. In short, Narendra Modi’s ‘ Abki bar Trump Sarkar’ was a flawed conceptualisation of strengthening the bilateral relations between the two largest democracies in the world. Hence, by abstaining from duplicating his past mistake, Modi has strategically sought to balance the upcoming equation with the one who finally adorns the Oval office as the world’s most powerful person.
Vivekanand Jha, Author, Academician and a Public Intellectual.
