Kathmandu, 8 may. Till a few months ago it seemed that the BJP-led NDA government could get a challenge from the Congress. That’s because of last year Congress won the assembly elections of three states so it seemed that the Congress was recovering.
But after the Pulwama attack the situation seems to be changing. With the sentiments of nationalism BJP has done this election equation in its favor after the Pulwama. At least in the Hindi states it has reduced its losses significantly and has forced the other regional parties along with the Congress to re-think its strategy.
The question was first whether the BJP will be able to return in 2019 ? After the Pulwama attack now the question is how many seats will BJP be able to win in 2019 ?
Even before the Pulwama attack BJP was ahead in the race for the 2019 elections but after the Pulwama BJP has moved slightly ahead of Congress and regional parties in the Indian states.
The image of the BJP government from Balakot air strik also became strong showing that this government could answer Pakistan. Besides this BJP is also benefiting from the fact that people do not see any option of Narendra Modi. After the Pulwama Modi is looking stronger and his popularity got a boost again. However there is a differences between that if a popular leader like Atal Bihari Vajpayee can be defeated by the Congress and the divided opposition in 2004, then why not the popular Narendra Modi can be defeated in 2019 ? In 1999 Lok Sabha elections also came after the Kargil war. No party can claim that it is invincible and that same thing applies to BJP. But we can not compare to 2019 with 2004 because the vote base of Congress is different in both these elections.
When Congress contested in 2004 it had 28.5 votes and now the Congress vote has remained at 19.65.
If the Congress takes a 6-7 percent increase even then it will not get more than 100 seats.
If any popular government is to be defeated such as the BJP government, then the opposition will have to look stronger than the ruling party and if any opposition party is not very strong then for defeating the ruling party all parties should come together to defeat the ruling party.
The Congress could not form a great coalition in Uttar Pradesh and even after several attempts till today the Aam Aadmi Party has not been able to align with the Congress.The Congress alone can not defeat the BJP this time. If Opposition came along then it would be a challenge for Modi but in that case also BJP could not get below 200 seats.
There are many states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana, Jharkhand, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir and Delhi where the BJP’s performance is good. In these states BJP had coalition with regional parties and here regional parties were divided so anti-BJP votes were split therfore BJP got its advantage. It is true that coalition of opposition parties can meke difficult for BJP to come back in power in many states like Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Punjab, Jharkhand, Haryana, Maharashtra. Opposition coalition in Bihar can not harm NDA. The Congress has alliances in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Bihar but it is not enough to challenge the BJP.
As far as Modi’s own area of Baranasi is concerned, the road show by BJP has largely clarified the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections of India. It was being conceived that Priyanka Vadra would be contested against Modi ji. But perhaps the Congress has understood the situtation and Priyanka’s image is going to be saved now. All these situations and figures point to this that it is almost impossible to defeat Narendra Modi in 2019. Modi’s magic is again showing amazing
