Interestingly, SB Deuba, who is at the helm of affairs, has some limitations. He has very limited time to function, as the tenure of the House of Representatives will last for hardly fifteen months. After declaring the date of election, his government will be a caretaker government. Moreover, he is facing a heterogeneous coalition.
By Birendra P Mishra
2. Assertiveness of China in Nepal:
a. Arrest of 122 Chinese Citizens:
Besides the five Chinese nationals were held for using cloned debit cards to withdraw millions of rupees from the ATMs of different banks in September2019, a joint team of Central Investigation Bureau (CBI), Metropolitan Police Range and Metropolitan Crime Division arrested 122 Chinese citizens from different places in Kathmandu on 23 December 2019 for their alleged involvement in suspicious activities with 67 passports,747 mobile phones, 331 laptops,18 CPUs, 19 monitors, 22 pens and 327 SIM cards from the arrestees.(18). They all had arrived on tourist visas. Against the Chinese claim on 26 December 2019 of having joint operation by Chinese and Nepal police, the Nepal police denied it and asserted that the Nepal police carried it out independently. (19)
Strangely, the investigating authorities could not establish the nature of crimes committed by them. And finally, they were deported by the Department of Immigration (DoI) on 8 January 2020 in two lots on two aircrafts sent by China. The Chief District Officer of Kathmandu set them free on 5 January, slapping on them a fine of Rs 1, 000, as they were found guilty of“ indecent behaviour”. Similarly, the Dept of Immigration imposed fine of Rs1000 each on 34 of those arrested with valid travel documents for engaging in activities restricted by Nepal’s immigration laws. Those who did not posses any travel document were fined Rs 2000 each.(20). It proves the pathetic and helpless condition Nepal before China.
b. Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty:
Curiously, the protocol of Mutual Legal Assistance with China pertaining to criminal cases, which was signed in October2019, was a rare and bold step. However, the formal acceptance of the protocol by the government was casually announced by the spokes person of the government, the Minister for Information and communication technology only on 16 January 2020 in his regular press briefing. The abnormal delay of the announcement was intriguing, on the one hand and lack of publicity by any major English and vernacular dailies except the ‘Kantipur’ on the other made it mysterious. Perhaps, it was to avoid the attention of international community to the protocol, which may be demanded by other countries who actually need it. It was indeed a special favour to China to please it.
c. China Asserts on novel Coronavirus:
The assertiveness of China was displayed by its response to the article carried by ‘The Kathmandu Post’, on its 18 February, 2020 edition. The artcle, ‘China’s secrecy has made coronavirus crisis much worse’ written by Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to NATO, was published earlier by The Korean Herald, a part of the Asia News Network. The Chinese ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqi expressed her strong protest through a statement on the article stating, “The piece, along with an adjoining picture, “ deliberately smeared” Chinese fight against the novel coronavirus and “viciously” attacked the political system of China”. She also made a threat of ‘further action’ to Editor-in – Chief by name. Though her threat invited severe criticisms not only from print and electronic media but also from diplomatic circles, (21), the editor had to relinquish his post finally.
The issue of Covid-19 had shown China’s assertive posture in Nepal. Despite the continuous frantic requests from the Nepalese nationals stranded in Wuhan to be evacuated immediately, they were evacuated only in the second week of February 2020. They were the last lot of foreigners to be evacuated. The delay was caused just to avoid China’s displeasure as it was against the immediate evacuation of foreign nationals that could have proved China’s incompetence in dealing with the deadly virus. Similarly, Nepal could not stop regular Chinese flights to Katmandu, though most of the countries cancelled them. Finally, all international flights operations at Tribhuvan International airport were suspended from March 22 to March 31 2020.(22)
d. Land Occupation by China:
In September/October, 2020, it was reported in the media that China had occupied some area of Lapcha of Limi of Humla district. It had built eleven structures for security purpose. Except one all are empty. Interestingly, the Chinese ambassador however claimed the area well within the Chinese territory and also offered negotiation if there was any dispute. But the Nepalese Foreign Minster denied the report immediately. However, the Nepali Congress disputed the Minister’s denial by issuing a statement on October 14, 2020 citing the findings of the fact-finding team of the Congress led by its Member of provincial assembly. There are disputes in Hilsa and Lamabagar (Dolkha) since 1979, which has not yet been dissolved.(23)
Historicity of Foreign Policy:
King Prithvi Narayan Shah, the founder of modern Nepal, had set his foreign policy by holding Nepal “ a yam between two boulders” Sadly he did not live long to rule his newly founded kingdom to confront its neighbours, as there was British India on one side and Tibet on the other. China was a distant neighbour. Tibet was least developed and Nepal had the edge over it. However, to meet the challenges from the imperial India, Shah Kings, Regents and their Prime Ministers sought help from China to counter the British unsuccessfully.
The Ranas, who usurped real power from the Shah Kings, were on good terms with the British. During 1857’s India’ s revolt against the British, the then Rana prime minister with his army personally helped the British suppress the rebellion and even helped effectively capture Lucknow. In return, Nepal got back its four districts-Banke, Bardia, Kailali and Kanchanpur, a very fertile area, which the British had captured under the Treaty of Sugauli, 1816. The regained area was called ‘Naya Muluka’. Nepal helped them during the First and Second World Wars as well.
However, the political condition changed drastically after India became independent in 1947. The new rulers of India facilitated the overthrow of the 104-year old oligarchic rule of the Ranas in 1951and restored state power to King Tribhuvan. After return from self-exile in India the King formed a coalition government of the Ranas and the Nepali Congress(NC) as per ‘Delhi Compromise’, which ended the armed revolution started by the Nepali Congress in 1950.As per agreement, the King was to hold Constituent Assembly (CA) election to frame a democratic constitution to establish democracy in Nepal. Sadly, though he died prematurely, the fulfillment of commitment was getting delayed. His successor King Mahendra instead of holding CA election held election to parliament in 1959 after promulgating a new constitution. A duly elected government was dismissed in December 1960 in a royal coup and the partyless Panchyat system was introduced in place of parliamentary system. He stopped teaching of Hindi in Madhes/Tarai, forced India to withdraw its wireless operators from the Chinese border and joined hands with China to get the Kodari National Highway to link Nepal with China. All these were against India. However, during the early days of his regime two big river projects ( Koshi and Gandaka) were signed under PMs MP Koirala and BP Koirala.
Significantly, it was the Chinese takeover of Tibet in1959 that made China its next-door northern neighbour, which provided Nepal another door of opportunity to visit for help in duress. The royal coup of 1960 made India a target to be hit by both the NC and the establishment. Many Nepali Congress workers and leaders believed that India deliberately did not prevent the coup, on the one hand and the establishment got annoyed for not stopping activities of the Nepali Congress workers to oppose the King from India on the other. The King started looking at China for support by providing it enough space in Nepal to play, as China and India already had a bloody clash at their border in 1962. Mean while there was change of guard in Nepal due to sudden demise of the King and Birendra succeeded him.
The bilateral relations between India and Nepal were not smooth even in early 1950s. Pt. Nehru alerted Nepal to deal with China and the US cautiously, perhaps to keep Nepal under India’s umbrella. However, Nepal not only secretly got in touch with China but also established diplomatic relations with it and came closer to both. The response of India against the royal coup and the growing Chinese influence in Nepal destroyed the Nehru’s personal touch of Nepal- India relations. However, during his last days( died in 1964) efforts were made to improve the relations. During the short span of LB Shastri’s rule, relations appeared to be improving. Indira Gandhi became prime minister in 1966. Nepal became suspicious about India after Bangladesh was born in 1971.During her first inning as PM, the issue of trade and transit cropped up, as India wanted single trade and transit treaty, where as Nepal was for two different treaties to deal with India differently. The problem was solved when Morarji Desai became prime minister in 1977. Again during the second inning of Indira Gandhi, she did not pay much attention to Nepal, as she was engaged in solving domestic problems like Khalistan movement and Golden temple issue, which cost her life. The issue returned and India resorted to the border blockade during Rajiv Gandhi’s rule. To get rid of India’s clutches, King Birendra declared Nepal a zone of peace, which India did not recognize.
Internally, Nepal was not quite at all, as all political activities were banned. All political parties and the elite, who were suffocating, started the first people’s movement in 1990 with moral support of India that overthrew the Partyless Panchayat system after thirty years. New constitution was promulgated in 1990 and the King was made constitutional monarch. Parliamentary election was held in 1991 and fist democratic government was formed that did not last long and a mid-term election was called for which resulted in a hung parliament. The Communist Party of Nepal-UML formed a minority government being the largest party in Parliament and its leader Manmohan Adhikari became prime minister in 1994. His government voted for Japan in UN Security Council election against India.
The Adhikari government lasted for nine months. Another coalition government led by SB Deuba of the Nepali Congress was formed in 1995, which faced the Maoist insurgency. The Maoists took up arms against the state. Their major plank was anti-India, as among their forty-point demands many demands were against India. However, it was assumed that India was behind the Maoists. The government could not curb it. It was believed the King did not want the Maoists to be eliminated as they were targeting political workers who are his foes. After Maoist encounters with the Nepal Army made the King became serious. After his sudden assassination in 2001, his successor King Jnanendra, who took direct control of the country, was against India, as India had stopped the supply of arms and ammunitions. Nepal had to procure arms from Belgium. In Dhaka summit of SAARC he proposed the membership of China, whereas. Afghanistan got its membership. The seven-party alliance and the Maoists signed the twelve-point agreement in November 2005 in India. To many, it proved the Indian involvement in buttressing the Maoists insurgency.
The agreement paved the way for the second People’s movement in 2006, which ultimately overthrew the monarchy in which India is believed to have played a critical role. In CA elections, India supported the Election Commission significantly. India did not exert openly in political events that took place thereafter, However, India got involved directly when all major parties ganged up to adopt the constitution, which Madhesi parties were objecting and agitating against it at the cost of their lives. They were shot in their chests. It seems that the Indian intervention was irrelevant at that time, as if some one was trying to stop cooking when it was already cooked. It led to a deep crisis in Nepa-India relations. The steps taken by India thereafter were hardly enough to improve the relations. To name a few, the arrangements of presidential visits from both sides and congratulating the establishment for holding partial local elections and the change of guard before it took place, could not prove effective. A dozen of psychological barriers, which were engraved in the mindset of the Nepalese politicians, virtually prevented the relations to grow. (24) And sadly, the catharsis still persists.
Presently, Nepal is a federal secular democratic republic. Within six years of the adoption of the constitution (20 Sep.2015) its main salient features are at stake. Every leader views democracy differently. Parliament has been made ineffective. Governments are being run by ordinances. Prime Ministers are not attending the central secretariat and function from their official residence. The interest of the individual leader counts not the interest of the country. Every one has become skeptic. No body knows where Nepal is going and who is governing it.
Significantly, it is a fact that Madhesi parties do not accept the constitution as it is, However, they are participating in the governance. The RPP also has its reservations on secularism and monarcky. No Prime Minister seems to accept the federal character of the country, as they are not serious in implementing it. Neither required laws are enacted nor necessary administrative staffs are provided to the provinces to run the administration and to strengthen them, The provinces are crying for them. Only in words, Singh Durbar, the central secretariat, has been shifted to villages, as all powers and facilities are still centralized in Singh Durbar. For the sake of democracy, hardly any democratic norms are followed to strengthen it. Parties are campaigning for directly elected executive, as their thirst for absolute power is yet to be quenched. Does Nepal, being a multiethnic, multireligious, multilingual and multiracial country afford one man’s rule? Hence, Nepal is at a crossroads again. No political leadership is coming forward to prove its maturity and take all stakeholders together to build a strong and viable Nepal.
Interestingly, SB Deuba, who is at the helm of affairs, has some limitations. He has very limited time to function, as the tenure of the House of Representatives will last for hardly fifteen months. After declaring the date of election, his government will be a caretaker government. Moreover, he is facing a heterogeneous coalition. The result is obvious. The PM has succeeded in expanding his cabinet after 88 days in office. Interestingly, some coalition partners are not reliable, as they have betrayed him in the past. There are some partners, who may not accept his stance on foreign policy. Moreover, the main opposition CPN-UML will oppose any change in the foreign policy, which was adopted by it. It may not allow the government to pass necessary laws by parliament to prove its earlier claims on the worthlessness of the present House and the dissolution of the House twice in the past. It may force him to call for an early election. In such a condition, it is very difficult for him to discharge the normal function of the state. To study the tilt of foreign policy and act to set it right seems difficult, if not impossible for him. It goes to his credit if he initiates moves in this direction. Moreover, the roadblocks created by Oli by way of issuing new Map of Nepal etc. will not provide favourable condition to proceed further. Interestingly, a team of the Nepali Congress leaders led by PS Mahat, former Foreign minister has left for India on 7 October at the invitation of the BJP, the party in power in India. Hardly any hope can be attributed to this visit. However, something is better than nothing.
Please see first part of this article
Can Nepal Balance its tilted Foreign Policy? : Birendra P Mishra. (P-1)
Nepal has permitted the China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) formed in 2018 to provide development assistance and create capitals in 15 northern districts of Nepal having common border with China to meet their developmental requirements.
Can Nepal Balance its tilted Foreign Policy? : Birendra P Mishra. (P-1)
References:
(1) TKP (The Kathmandu Post), 24/9/2018. (2) TKP, 28/10/2018.
(3) The Week,7/12.2019. (4) The Week, 7/12/2018.
(5)THT( The Himalayan Times), 15/6/ 2019. (6) TKP, 31/12/2018.
(7) TKP,6/3/2019. (8) TKP,30/3/2-19. (9) TKP,30/4/2019).
(10) TKP, 25/6/2019. ( 11) TKP, 27/6/2019. (12) TKP, 9/9/2019.
(13) Kantipur, 29/1/2020. (14) TKP,14/10/2019. 15)TKP,14/10.2019.
(16)TKP,18/10.20190. (17)TKP,7/11/ 2019. (18)TKP,6/1/2020.
(19) TKP, 27/12/2019. (20) THT, 9/1/2020. (21) TKP, 20/2/2020.
(22) Naya Patrika,a vernacular daily,15/3/2020, andThe Himalayan Times, 21/3/2020.
(23) Annapurna Post , a vernacular daily, 16/10/2020 ( 30/5/2077 BS) Shyamaprasad Mainali, Uttari sima atikraman kyaon.(24) Mishra Birendra Prasad, Esays on Indian Diplomatic Dilemma in Nepal, 2019, Adroit Publishers, New Delhi
