Vivekanand Jha, Ranchi. In 2016, in course of my book launch of Yes, I am Bihari, I had whispered to Nitishjee, ‘ Sir, I have written a piece: A Bihari Prime Minister in 2019′. In fact, Nitish Kumar, so long as he had continued to oppose Nitish Kumar, he remained the darling of Sonia Gandhi and the Congress—how Sonia had offered him a seat close to her in the Iftaar Party in 2016, much to the chagrin of other Congress stalwarts. In fact, there was, and is, always a mad frenzy around Sonia, for seeking an immediate vicinity in sitting space vis a vis her. Significantly, whoever finds a space adjacent to Sonia, is considered to be the luckiest few, and those who fall out of her favour, become the heathen, the one to be treated as contagious, the way Corona is being viewed in the contemporary times. Unequivocally, Natwar, the ardent loyalist of Gandhi-Nehru family, was the best person to feel the taste of both situations–so long as he remained in the good book of Gandhis’, the benefits accrued to him in torrent–once the blue eyed boy turned into the villain of the family, all freebies stopped: Natwar, the family loyalist had metamorphosed into another disposable mask sacrificed at the altar of the preservation of the family interest; its summon bonum and raison d’etre. No wonder the cheerleader of the family, in no time, felt the irony of being written off after having enjoyed the coveted proximity with the family for decades.
With the decline in the gravity of the family, unequivocally brought about by the decimation of the Congress Party at the hustings, helplessly rendered the family on crutches of the regional satraps. Also, the rise of Narendra Modi has invariably contributed to the inevitable decline of family’s clout in polity. Evidently, the family in a sudden shock of losing clout as well as power, was regretfully left with kowtowing the regional satraps who could combat the overwhelming influence of Narendra Modi, or at least purportedly appeared to have been doing so. Nitish Kumar in 2016 appeared to match Sonia’s expectations with his barbs directed at Modi. Hence, Nitish had evolved as the blue eyed boy of Sonia Gandhi. However, sooner than the later, Nitish Kumar realised his crippling limitations: He had no independent strength to form his own government in the state. Small wonder then Nitish Kumar had to shake off the monkey on his shoulder; he had to get rid of Laloo, whose overwhelming interference in the administration, had virtually left Nitish impotent to make decisions that he had the sole prerogative to decide as the Chief Minister of the state. Thus, jumping on to Modi bandwagon was the only solution that he had to bank upon. No wonder in doing so, whereas Nitish Kumar continued to retain his chief ministerial position, he compromised his space as a Modi baiter at the national level. Later, 2017 Municipal election in Delhi was an eye opener for Nitish Kumar: despite invoking the Bihari pride–Nitish Kumar had taken a leaf out of my famous book Yes, I am Bihari –when he gave a clarion call to his fellow Biharis in Delhi: ‘ Ham Bihari Hain’. Alas, wishes were horses! Nitish Kumar, despite Biharis being the pivot of Delhi’s electoral permutation and combination, he failed to open his account.
However, Nitish Kumar’s exit from the opposition space, and his capitulation to Narendra Modi to save his own chair, had providentially provided space to Mamata Banerjee to emerge as an opposition voice, yet Mamata knew her limitation: Sonia Gandhi, the head of the dynasty will not allow her to emerge as an alternative to Modi. Significantly, Mamata, despite her intermittent barbs directed at Modi, had waited for years unless she decimated Modi-Shah duo in 2021 Assembly Elections in West Bengal. The landslide victory against BJP, where she was directly pitted against Modi, had given her the required legitimacy to emerge as the dominant voice of the opposition, along with the credentials to be pitted against Modi. Moreover, the diminishing clout of Rahul Gandhi at the national level, provided Mamata a shot in the arm, yet Rahul remains the biggest thorn in the path of Mamata to emerge as the genuine challenger to Modi.
But then Sonia Gandhi is not someone to stay silent, she had to quickly discover the antidote to stifle or strangle Mamata’s onward march to Delhi, and if someone could genuinely hobble her, was Kanhaiya Kumar. Kanahiya’s influence over both Dalits and Muslims, could prove to be the cogent obstacle in inhibiting Mamata and shackling her soaring ambition to reach Delhi Durbar. But the landslide victory in 2021, especially when she was pitted directly against Modi, had further fueled her ambition to put down a daunting challenge to a Hindu mascot. Moreover, the victory at the bye election in Bhavanipur, where almost half of the electorate hailed from outside Bengal, was the unimpeachable proof that Mamata’s dream, however unpalatable it might appear to both BJP as well as the Congress, has already developed wings; she is destined to challenge the current dispensation at the centre.
Mamata’s Himalayan endeavour to be the next Prime Minister of India, even though might purportedly appear to be unachievable, in view of ground reality confronting her outside West Bengal, yet her solid appeal to the vast section of Muslims and a chunk of Hindus too, despite its inherent flawless, cannot be ruled out. With her sweetest victory against Modi in 2021, and her current foray into Tripura, which has the substantial chunk of Bengali votes, is solely based on encasing Bengali sentiment : Vote for a Bengali Prime Minister, even though it might be a subtle communication. Although Delhi is far off, with Congress as the main opposition Party, Mamata’s chances brightens up against the backdrop of the formation of the coalition government by the non-BJP combination. And here Mamata has the genuine chance: She will settle for nothing less than Prime Ministership, for Modi phobia might be the trigger for Congress to eventually settle for anyone other than Modi to form the government. In 2004, it was Pranab Mukherjee who had sought mandate from Jangipur, West Bengal, in the name of a Bengali Prime Minister, the people of Jangipur had blessed him on the ground of Bengali pride. Nonetheless, Pranab Mukherjee finally had moved to Raisina Hill as India’s President. Significantly, Mamata too, in 2024 will seek mandate from the people of West Bengal to fulfill the hitherto unfulfilled Bangla dream to reach the New Prime Minister’s House, so assiduously built by Narendra Modi. However, there is a moot question: Even if the people of West Bengal blesses her on Bengali pride, will the people of India bless her, is a million dollar’s question? Especially when she is perceived outside of West Bengal as the one who insulted Sri Ram, the soul of Bharatvarsha. But then this fact too cannot be glossed over that, this very attitude of being anti-Sri Ram will be her credentials before a large section of people from a particular community who will overwhelmingly vote for her. Will Mamata succeed where Pranab da had miserably failed, is the biggest question today? Moreover, Sonia Gandhi, who had stopped brake in the overwhelming dream of Pranab Mukherjee to lead the nation, by pushing him to the Rashtrapati Bhavan; will she, then, allow Mamata Banerjee to crush her own aspiration to see her own son stepping into the shoes of his father, by ascending to the highest political position of the land?
Vivekanand Jha is an author, Academician and a Public intellectual. He is also the Convener of Education pe Charcha.
