Political instability will continue
Birendra P Mishra, (former election commissioner of Nepal).. Nepal has been experiencing instable democracy since 1951when oligarchic rule was replaced by a democratic setup. Sadly, it was neither allowed to grow nor nurtured by its leaders. The latest set back was the dissolution of the House of Representatives (HoR) by PM KP Sharma Oli on 20 December 2020. Interestingly, the Supreme Court of Nepal has reinstated it on 23 February2021 by holding dissolution unconstitutional. It is no secret that due to internal bickering in the Communist Party of Nepal, PM Oli took his desperate action when he was cornered to step down in favor of PK Dahal ‘Prachanda’, co-chair of the party. It is believed that while uniting the CPN-UML and the Communist Centre in 2017an agreement was reached between the two leaders to lead the government in tern. Undoubtedly, the Court verdict has eliminated the chance of immediate instability, which however still looms large. Significantly, the confusion has been confounded by the 7 March’s judgment of the Supreme Court, which declares the unification of the two parties null and void, which was recognized by the Election commission. The new situation entails that the Government led by KP Sharma Oli has been reduced to minority virtually but not legally, which warrants either his resignation or his seeking vote of confidence. Alternatively, vote of no confidence is to be tabled either by the Maoist Centre or any other coalition including the two opposition parties. Since it is not possible to have such a formation immediately, the present government will continue. However, it would be no wonder if the present coalition continues, as there is no permanent friend or foe in politics.
Significantly, the past Nepalese history of two and a half centuries suggests that it always suffered from political instability. It was caused by both objective and subjective conditions, which still prevail. Historically, King Pirthvi Narayan Shah who founded modern Nepal ruled the kingdom only for seven years due to his sudden death. His son ruled only for two years as he died very early. Some of his successors died prematurely and some were minors leaving the kingdom to be ruled by their mothers and others as Regents.
In 1846 Prime Minister Jung Bahadur Rana established the Rana oligarchy, which reined the kingdom for 104 years in the name of the Shah dynasty. The regime witnessed only three PMs who ruled the kingdom for longer periods. It was thrown out in 1951 by the armed revolution waged by the Nepali Congress in 1950 that made room for Shah King Tribhuvan to acquire his royal power through the negotiation in Delhi and a coalition government the Ranas and the Nepali Congress with the Rana Prime Minister. There were frequent changes of leadership.
King Tribhuvan died in 1955 without fulfilling the terms of Delhi Compromise to hold election to a Constituent Assembly (CA) to establish democracy. His successor king Mahendra did not hold CA election but held parliamentary election in 1059 under a new constitution promulgated in 1957. He dismissed the elected government of the Nepali Congress led by BP Koirala and suspended the constitution in 1960. He promulgated yet another constitution in 1962 to introduce the partyless Panchayat system, which witnessed the same faces appointed as PMs repeatedly.
However, the subjective feature (character) of political leaders is also responsible for instability. Unfortunately, Nepal got authoritarian and over ambitious leaders in both democratic and authoritarian dispensations. In quest of their individual unrestricted control of political power they ignored unity in the party and went on by dissolving parliament to call for another election to seek people’s mandate, which ultimately landed in instability. The peoples’ movement overthrew the Panchayat system in 1990 and a new constitution was promulgated, which reinstated the parliamentary system. Subsequently, general election was held in 1991and the Nepali Congress formed its majority government. However, it lasted for hardly three years, as the HoR was dissolved to have a mid-term poll in 1994. Due to internal bickering of the party a faction of the ruling party did not support the motion of thanks to the king for his address to the House. The election mandated a hung parliament that had six governments during its five-year term. After 1999 general election, the Nepali Congress again formed its majority government but it changed its PMs thrice before its PM dissolved the HoR in mid-2002 after the party was split. It failed to hold the mid-term poll on account of the Maoist insurgency. King Gyanendra, who had succeeded King Birendra after his assassinated in 2001, dissolved the government and brought the kingdom under his direct rule in late 2002. Four PMs were changed before April 2006 when the second peoples’ movement brought down the government and the HoR was reinstated by the king. The absolute monarchy is also responsible for it always held the king above law. PMs were not allowed to continue in the office for long..
The Maoists, who had paralyzed the government, joined the peace process initiated by the Seven-Party Alliance against the monarchy, succeeded in getting parliament restored.The Maoists joined the mainstream politics. They joined the interim parliament, which framed the interim constitution in 2007. The interim government held the election to the CA in 2008. Sadly, the CA failed to adopt a constitution even in four years against its mandated term of two years and got dissolved automatically after completing its additional tenure. The second CA was elected in 2013under the chairmanship of the sitting Supreme Court Chief Justice, which adopted the new constitution in 2015. There were changes of PM thrice to have the election to Parliament in 2017. Though the election did not provide majority to any party, the single largest party with support from its electoral coalition partner formed the government, which had almost two-third majority in the House. The fate of the present government is hanging in the balance expecting its change in the near future. In case, any government is formed replacing the present one, it will hardly last for the remaining two years, as the opposition and internal conflict within the coalition may call for the mid-term poll. However, the polarization of parties may not succeed in getting one party majority rule, which will not end the continuity of instability. Hence Nepal will remain vulnerable to instability till a fair and broad-minded leader emerges to lead the country.
