Modi’s Bismarckian Vision will be on severe test in these most volatile times when forging closer relations with USA, risks the alienation of Russia in corresponding measures.
Vivekanand Jha Ranchi: It was during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s era, Primakov, the then foreign minister, had visited India. In course of his visit, he dropped the bombshell: ‘India- Russia- China will form the strategic alliance against the USA’. Ataljee, a statesman prime minister as he was, he instantly stepped in to discount Primakov’s observation, ‘ We do not believe in any strategic alliance against any country. It is the individual opinion of Primakov’. Moreover, the situation which unfolded in the immediate wake of nuclear test in Pokhran, had laid the template for a new world order: A strategic switchover in stitching a new strategic relations was unexpectedly gaining currency: The tectonic shift in forging a new equation in the world order began. Ostensibly, USA stepping in, imposing series of sanctions on India, as an aftermath effects of India’s nuclear test, engendered the new confidence of Prime Minister: writing a letter to President Clinton, justifying his decision to go for the nuclear test, Vajpayee had underscored certain fundamental points, which resulted in a paradigmatic shift in India’s foreign policy: willy nilly Ataljee had sought to strangle India’s hitherto fixation with Pakistan, while laying emphasis on India’s new equation with China. Significantly, without mentioning the name, the then Prime Minister was seeking to elevate India from its hitherto claustrophobic fixation with Pakistan, while giving India a broader outlook of its newer fixation with Asian giant, China. Incidentally, Ataljee had invoked a direct threat from China for India’s nuclear test by way of self- defence. Notwithstanding several round of talks between Jaswant Singh, the then foreign minister and Deputy Secretary of State, Talbott, this new equation, as Ataljee had sought to forge, was scoffed by China, for China, condescended any such equation from a country which it disdainfully regarded as a far lesser mortal to have any sort of affinity with it. Unequivocally, more India was seeking its equation with China, greater was the aversion of China towards this new India’s unwarranted ebullience. China had the single-minded focus: It relished its equation only with USA, as China, surreptitiously though, ever since the days of Mao Tse Tung, had been nursing an ambition to emerge as the superpower, eclipsing USA in the process.
However China, until the arrival of Xi Jinping, had maintained a strategic silence, suppressing its expansionist motto. Interestingly, even though China espoused ‘ One China policy’ vis a vis Taiwan, after having annexed Tibet, the latter was an autonomous territory. However, the scenario completely changed, with Jinping’s arrival on the scene: China has begun flexing its muscles; its jingoism is an all time high. The neighbours in South China Sea, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Japan –all are on high alert, with China exhibiting its hegemony in territories which belonged to the neighbours. Worse still, Galwan Valley clash, was a well orchestrated move by China to test India’s resolve. Apparently, China’s deploying of its dual policy, proved beneficial for it, however, it enormously scared its neighbours: The technique of Salami Slicing, adequately backed up by its aggressive foreign policy of Wolf Warrior Diplomacy. With Salami Slicing, Chinese army would retrace a step, only to advance by two more steps, thereby nibbling the neighbours’ territories, and then, aggressively advancing its stand of forcible grabbing of the neigbours’ land. Unequivocally, its mega initiative of OBOR( One Belt, One Road), which it is trying to forcibly impose upon weaker nations, like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Myanmar, amounted to dominating the aforesaid countries by indebting them through granting of the soft loan. Little wonder then, Pakistan today, Sri Lanka in the recent past, stood on the verge of bankruptcy: how India bailed out Sri Lanka from the escalating crisis, was the vindication of Chinese ulterior motive to subjugate Asia through its myriad manoeuvrings and political shenanigans. In short, as the aforesaid countries’ nemesis quadrupled, the realisation too started gaining currency that China was laying down the trap for the neighbours and smaller countries. In other words, China began enjoying the trust- deficit as never before. None trusted China’s motto. Uncannily though, Sri Sudheendra Kulkarni, the trusted aide of Sri Vajpayee, a votary of Chinese modernity, was overwhelmingly batting for India joining OBOR, for he confided in this author how Chinese diplomats were amenable to making changes as India would suggest, provided the latter expressed its desire to join the so- called revolutionary move of OBOR.
Strangely, as politics is the game and equation of strange bed fellows, the template of foreign policy and international relations too, experiences a paradigmatic shift: A sudden tectonic shift in its equation with India, China has been exhibiting a friendly attitude. This fact has been reinforced by India’s foreign secretary, Mistri with the foreign minister of China, resulting in the resumption of Man sarovar, Kailash Yatra, which had stopped after the relationship with China substantially deteriorated. Also, the serious parleys has begun on the strategic withdrawal of military forces stationed on borders as the mutual confidence measures. Apparently, Vladimir Putin purportedly appears to have been pressing Jinping to normalise relations with India. But then, China is not known to listen to anyone, unless its own strategic interest is at stake. Unequivocally, the return of Donald Trump, with all his concrete steps to tame China, especially his public announcement of snatching Panama canal, which Trump feels, is under Chinese dominance, is the underlying cause of Jinping’s apparent trepidation. Moreover, the increase in tariff on Chinese products, especially in the context of Trump’s clarion call to make ‘ America great again’, the invocation is surely going to be detrimental to the strategic interest of China. Small wonder then, with America snarling at the throat of Jinping, the latter has to mend fences with its strong neighbour, India. Besides, China’s products too faced the backlash of Indian government, causing a terrible setback to its economy, forced Jinping on the back foot. In short, whereas China is looking for a short term expediency in terms of building a rapport with India, the latter should always remain wary: it should test the real intent of China, by forcing it to solve all the outstanding border disputes. And only if China wilfully does it, the latter’s real intent would be actually revealed. Meanwhile, Modi’s Bismarckian vision suggests that he should continue to have strategic partnership with USA and Russia, for the latter should never be abandoned, irrespective of any pressure from anywhere. In short, whereas Chinese sincerity is still to be tested, especially in the context of its propping ISI and fanatics in Bangladesh in creating troubles at the strategic area of India’s Chicken Neck, India should cautiously proceed while dealing with China. In fact, ‘once beaten, twice shy’, the proverb should apply when India begins forging any type of relationship with China. Thus Primakov’s espousal of strategic partnership among India- China- Russia, has no tangible quotient, despite USA’s too, proving to be an opportunistic partner: its usage of India as a counterweight to China is an open secret.
Vivekanand Jha, Author, Academician and a Public Intellectual.
